Today / Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 / Hellas Verona U20 vs Cesena U20

Hellas Verona U20 vs Cesena U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 15:00

Hellas Verona U20

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cesena U20

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.9%0-24.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.7%1-110.2%1-27.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.4%3-15.1%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 40.0% 2.50 +8.3%

Draw 22.6% 30.8% 3.25 -15.9%

Away win 34.1% 42.0% 2.38 -18.8%

Over 2.5 62.3% 59.9% 1.67 +4.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.2% 2.43 -4.5%

BTTS 62.8% 66.7% 1.50 -5.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 45.7% 50.5% 1.98 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.8%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hellas Verona U201.7

Cesena U201.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HELLAS VERONA U20 · PPG 1.55

CESENA U20 · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hellas Verona U20 (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.9%

Cesena U20 (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hellas Verona U20 face Cesena U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hellas Verona U20 a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Cesena U20 34%, so Hellas Verona U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hellas Verona U20 and 1.5 for Cesena U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hellas Verona U20 are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.37 for Cesena U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Hellas Verona U20 vs Cesena U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 Predictions