Today / Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 / Bologna U20 vs Atalanta U20

Bologna U20 vs Atalanta U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 09:00

Bologna U20

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atalanta U20

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.2%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.3%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.6%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Draw 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -10.7%

Away win 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Over 2.5 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Over 3.5 30.9% 31.8% 3.14 -3.0%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 48.5% 2.06 -17.6%

Away O1.5 35.3% 34.6% 2.89 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna U201.5

Atalanta U201.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA U20 · PPG 1.45

ATALANTA U20 · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bologna U20 (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.7%

Atalanta U20 (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna U20 face Atalanta U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna U20 a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Atalanta U20 28%, so Bologna U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bologna U20 and 1.1 for Atalanta U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna U20 are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.34 for Atalanta U20. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 4-2.

Bologna U20 vs Atalanta U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 Predictions