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Cagliari U20 vs Sassuolo U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:00

Cagliari U20

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Sassuolo U20

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.5%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.2%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 40.0% 2.50 +26.8%

Draw 24.1% 34.5% 2.90 -18.1%

Away win 25.2% 40.0% 2.50 -22.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.5% 3.28 +4.0%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 41.2% 2.43 +21.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 41.7% 2.40 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari U201.7

Sassuolo U201.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI U20 · PPG 1.18

SASSUOLO U20 · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari U20 (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +26.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.1%

Sassuolo U20 (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari U20 face Sassuolo U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari U20 a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Sassuolo U20 25%, so Cagliari U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cagliari U20 and 1.2 for Sassuolo U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari U20 are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.04 for Sassuolo U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.9%.

Cagliari U20 vs Sassuolo U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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