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Sassuolo U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:45

Sassuolo U20

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fiorentina U20

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.3%0-25.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.2%1-28.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.6%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.4%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 30.3% 3.30 +34.6%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 34.8% 52.4% 1.91 -33.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 35.6% 2.81 +2.9%

BTTS 61.3% 60.6% 1.65 +1.1%

Home O1.5 41.0% 36.8% 2.72 +11.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 53.2% 1.88 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 7.7%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo U201.5

Fiorentina U201.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO U20 · PPG 1.31

FIORENTINA U20 · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo U20 (H) 40.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +34.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Fiorentina U20 (A) 34.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo U20 face Fiorentina U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo U20 a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Fiorentina U20 35%, so Sassuolo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sassuolo U20 and 1.5 for Fiorentina U20 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo U20 are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.38 for Fiorentina U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Sassuolo U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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