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Lecce U20 vs Lazio U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:00

Lecce U20

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lazio U20

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.9%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.1%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Draw 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.5%

Away win 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 51.3% 1.95 +4.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 29.2% 3.42 +5.7%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 41.5% 45.5% 2.20 -8.7%

Away O1.5 35.3% 34.1% 2.93 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecce U201.5

Lazio U201.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCE U20 · PPG 1.55

LAZIO U20 · PPG 1.28

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lecce U20 (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -0.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.5%

Lazio U20 (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecce U20 face Lazio U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecce U20 a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Lazio U20 28%, so Lecce U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lecce U20 and 1.1 for Lazio U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecce U20 are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.28 for Lazio U20. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Lecce U20 vs Lazio U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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