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Broadmeadow vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 03:00

Broadmeadow

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Edgeworth E.

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+27.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.3%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.6%1-14.2%1-23.5%1-31.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.1%2-16.7%2-25.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.3%3-17.1%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-112.4%4+-210.2%4+-35.6%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 52.4% 1.91 +13.3%

Draw 20.3% 30.3% 3.30 -19.8%

Away win 20.4% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Over 2.5 78.6% 61.7% 1.62 +27.3%

Over 3.5 70.9% 43.3% 2.31 +63.8%

BTTS 66.7% 66.7% 1.50 +0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.7%

H 59% / xG 3.2-1.7 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 3–2✓ 5.8%

#4 4–1 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow3.2

Edgeworth E.1.7

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.6% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW · PPG 1.80

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -19.8%

Edgeworth E. (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow face Edgeworth E. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Edgeworth E. 20%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Broadmeadow and 1.7 for Edgeworth E. (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.14 for Edgeworth E.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Broadmeadow vs Edgeworth E. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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