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New England vs Minnesota Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30

New England

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Minnesota Utd

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.0%1-19.9%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.0%3-16.6%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 47.2% 2.12 +9.8%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Over 2.5 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 37.4% 35.7% 2.80 +4.7%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England2.0

Minnesota Utd1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 2.57

MINNESOTA UTD · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.57) > Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

New England (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +9.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Minnesota Utd (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England face Minnesota Utd in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Minnesota Utd 24%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for New England and 1.1 for Minnesota Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.86 for Minnesota Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 2-1.

New England vs Minnesota Utd Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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