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Cuiaba vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:30

Cuiaba

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Novorizontino

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.3%0-119.4%0-27.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-111.8%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.6%2-13.6%2-21.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 41.3% 2.42 -22.3%

Draw 39.5% 35.0% 2.86 +13.0%

Away win 34.5% 30.8% 3.25 +12.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 3.5 5.1% 18.2% 5.50 -43.2%

BTTS 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.8%

D 40% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 25.3%

#2 0–1 19.4%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 1–0 15.3%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba0.6

Novorizontino0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 0.75

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

42%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 26.0%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -22.3%

Draw 39.5%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +13.0%

Novorizontino (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 26% chance, the draw 40% and Novorizontino 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Cuiaba and 0.8 for Novorizontino (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Cuiaba vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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