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Fluminense vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 22:00

Fluminense

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sao Paulo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 51% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.2%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.2%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 52.9% 1.89 -9.5%

Draw 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -5.1%

Away win 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Over 3.5 26.7% 27.8% 3.60 -2.3%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1✓ 9.2%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense1.5

Sao Paulo1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.38

SAO PAULO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

51%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=47.9%

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -9.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.1%

Sao Paulo (A) 25.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sao Paulo 26%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fluminense and 1.1 for Sao Paulo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Fluminense vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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