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Cienciano vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 22:45

Cienciano

PPG 2.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alianza Lima

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-112.6%0-27.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-17.1%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 46.7% 2.14 -24.5%

Draw 28.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.8%

Away win 36.3% 29.9% 3.35 +21.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 18.7% 27.8% 3.60 -19.6%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 0–1✓ 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cienciano1.1

Alianza Lima1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CIENCIANO · PPG 2.71

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.71) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cienciano (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -24.5%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.8%

Alianza Lima (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza Lima 36%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cienciano and 1.2 for Alianza Lima (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 2.00 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Cienciano vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions