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Curico Unido vs S. Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:30

Curico Unido

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

S. Wanderers

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.7%0-28.0%0-34.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.5%2-16.4%2-25.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 43.5% 2.30 -20.4%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 46.1% 35.7% 2.80 +29.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 51.8% 1.93 +14.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 29.9% 3.35 +21.9%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.2

S. Wanderers1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.60

S. WANDERERS · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 28.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

S. Wanderers (A) 46.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face S. Wanderers in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 29% chance, the draw 25% and S. Wanderers 46%, so S. Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Curico Unido and 1.8 for S. Wanderers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.60 for S. Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Curico Unido vs S. Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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