Today / Brazil - Serie B / Goias vs Botafogo SP

Goias vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:30

Goias

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-114.4%0-27.3%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.2%2-16.3%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 54.3% 1.84 -38.0%

Draw 31.7% 29.9% 3.35 +6.2%

Away win 34.6% 22.7% 4.40 +52.2%

Over 2.5 35.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.6%

Over 3.5 13.5% 23.8% 4.20 -26.0%

BTTS 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–0✓ 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias0.9

Botafogo SP1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 2.25

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=33.7%

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 33.7%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -38.0%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +6.2%

Botafogo SP (A) 34.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +52.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Botafogo SP 35%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Goias and 1.0 for Botafogo SP (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Goias vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions