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Internacional vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:30

Internacional

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vasco da Gama

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.1%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 50.8% 1.97 -18.6%

Draw 30.8% 29.9% 3.35 +3.2%

Away win 27.9% 26.0% 3.85 +4.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 18.6% 27.8% 3.60 -19.8%

BTTS 51.3% 55.6% 1.80 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.3%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.2

Vasco da Gama1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.00

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +3.2%

Vasco da Gama (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Vasco da Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Vasco da Gama 28%, so Internacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Internacional and 1.0 for Vasco da Gama (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Vasco da Gama. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Internacional vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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