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Atletico MG vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:30

Atletico MG

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mirassol

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.2%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.7%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.8%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 26.5% 27.0% 3.70 -1.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 23.9% 26.0% 3.85 -4.8%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico MG1.4

Mirassol1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MG · PPG 1.71

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Win probability 1X2

Atletico MG (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

Mirassol (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico MG face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico MG a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Mirassol 27%, so Atletico MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atletico MG and 1.1 for Mirassol (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico MG are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.67 for Mirassol. This match finished 3-1.

Atletico MG vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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