Today / Peru - Primera División / Juan Pablo II vs Alianza A.

Juan Pablo II vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 20:15

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alianza A.

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.9%0-27.1%0-33.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.4%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 41.6% 38.2% 2.62 +9.0%

Over 2.5 59.1% 47.6% 2.10 +24.1%

Over 3.5 32.7% 26.7% 3.75 +22.6%

BTTS 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II1.3

Alianza A.1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.14

ALIANZA A. · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II (H) 32.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Alianza A. (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II face Alianza A. in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Alianza A. 42%, so Alianza A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Juan Pablo II and 1.6 for Alianza A. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Alianza A.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Juan Pablo II vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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