Today / Penarol vs Liverpool M.

Penarol vs Liverpool M. Prediction

Monday, April 13, 2026

Penarol

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liverpool M.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.7%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.8%1-17.0%1-24.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.9%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-19.6%4+-25.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% — — —

Draw 16.9% — — —

Away win 15.5% — — —

Over 2.5 73.1% — — —

Over 3.5 52.6% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.5%

H 68% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol2.6

Liverpool M.1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 2.00

LIVERPOOL M. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 67.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Liverpool M. (A) 15.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Liverpool M. on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Liverpool M. 16%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Penarol and 1.2 for Liverpool M. (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Liverpool M..

Penarol vs Liverpool M. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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