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Villarreal B vs Sevilla FC B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Villarreal B

PPG 1.78 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sevilla FC B

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-17.6%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.1%1-110.2%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-16.8%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-13.0%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 82.0% 1.22 -35.1%

Draw 27.9% 21.1% 4.75 +19.5%

Away win 18.9% 6.7% 15.00 +110.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 57.1% 1.75 -38.8%

Over 3.5 10.9% 35.1% 2.85 -41.4%

BTTS 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.1%

#2 0–0 16.5%

#3 2–0✓ 14.8%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal B1.3

Sevilla FC B0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL B · PPG 1.78

SEVILLA FC B · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal B (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -35.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +19.5%

Sevilla FC B (A) 18.9%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +110.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal B face Sevilla FC B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal B a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Sevilla FC B 19%, so Villarreal B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Villarreal B and 0.5 for Sevilla FC B (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal B are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.50 for Sevilla FC B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +110.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Villarreal B vs Sevilla FC B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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