Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / UD Ibiza vs Cartagena

UD Ibiza vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.61 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Cartagena

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-113.1%0-24.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.1%2-15.9%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.9%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 48.8% 2.05 -13.3%

Draw 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

Away win 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 7.9% 25.0% 4.00 -41.0%

BTTS 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Ibiza1.0

Cartagena0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.61

CARTAGENA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

UD Ibiza (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.3%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +3.2%

Cartagena (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ibiza face Cartagena in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ibiza a 42% chance, the draw 33% and Cartagena 24%, so UD Ibiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for UD Ibiza and 0.7 for Cartagena (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ibiza are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.06 for Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 3-1.

UD Ibiza vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions