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Torremolinos vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Torremolinos

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Real Murcia

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-112.8%0-25.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.0%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.9%2-17.1%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 29.4% 3.40 +28.9%

Draw 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Away win 27.1% 30.3% 3.30 -6.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 3.5 13.4% 22.2% 4.50 -23.8%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 38% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torremolinos1.1

Real Murcia0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREMOLINOS · PPG 1.56

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Torremolinos (H) 37.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +28.9%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.0%

Real Murcia (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torremolinos face Real Murcia in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torremolinos a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Real Murcia 27%, so Torremolinos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Torremolinos and 0.9 for Real Murcia (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torremolinos are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.28 for Real Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Torremolinos vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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