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Teruel vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Teruel

PPG 1.61 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Sanluqueno

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.9%0-112.0%0-22.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.6%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-15.0%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.1%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 63.7% 1.57 -35.2%

Draw 38.7% 29.4% 3.40 +31.6%

Away win 20.0% 17.2% 5.80 +9.6%

Over 2.5 25.8% 42.6% 2.35 -23.6%

Over 3.5 5.3% 22.2% 4.50 -45.7%

BTTS 41.8% 44.4% 2.25 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 24.9%

#2 1–0 22.6%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teruel0.9

Sanluqueno0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TERUEL · PPG 1.61

SANLUQUENO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.61) vs P(Home)=41.3%

Win probability 1X2

Teruel (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -35.2%

Draw 38.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +31.6%

Sanluqueno (A) 20.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teruel face Sanluqueno in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teruel a 41% chance, the draw 39% and Sanluqueno 20%, so Teruel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Teruel and 0.5 for Sanluqueno (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teruel are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.67 for Sanluqueno. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Teruel vs Sanluqueno Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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