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Sabadell vs Antequera Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Sabadell

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Antequera

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-19.3%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-112.2%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-13.5%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 73.5% 1.36 -30.5%

Draw 27.7% 25.3% 3.95 +5.7%

Away win 21.2% 11.9% 8.40 +46.9%

Over 2.5 36.7% 52.6% 1.90 -30.3%

Over 3.5 14.1% 31.3% 3.20 -32.9%

BTTS 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabadell1.3

Antequera0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SABADELL · PPG 2.00

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Sabadell (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -30.5%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +5.7%

Antequera (A) 21.2%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +46.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabadell face Antequera in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabadell a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Antequera 21%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sabadell and 0.7 for Antequera (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabadell are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.39 for Antequera. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Sabadell vs Antequera Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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