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Gimnastic T. vs Europa Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Gimnastic T.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Europa

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.6%0-26.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.6%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 45.5% 2.20 -21.7%

Draw 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 36.6% 31.3% 3.20 +17.1%

Over 2.5 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Over 3.5 20.2% 23.8% 4.20 -9.1%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnastic T.1.1

Europa1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASTIC T. · PPG 1.67

EUROPA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Gimnastic T. (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Europa (A) 36.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnastic T. face Europa in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnastic T. a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Europa 37%, so Europa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gimnastic T. and 1.2 for Europa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnastic T. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.44 for Europa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Gimnastic T. vs Europa Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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