Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Eldense vs Atletico M. B

Eldense vs Atletico M. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Eldense

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Atletico M. B

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.3%1-112.2%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -11.1%

Away win 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Over 3.5 26.5% 27.4% 3.65 -2.0%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1✓ 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eldense1.5

Atletico M. B1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ELDENSE · PPG 2.50

ATLETICO M. B · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Eldense (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +0.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.1%

Atletico M. B (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eldense face Atletico M. B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eldense a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico M. B 25%, so Eldense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eldense and 1.1 for Atletico M. B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eldense are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.41 for Atletico M. B. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Eldense vs Atletico M. B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions