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Algeciras vs Hercules Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Algeciras

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Hercules

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-111.4%0-24.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.0%2-17.1%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 67.6% 1.48 -34.9%

Draw 32.4% 26.3% 3.80 +23.1%

Away win 23.7% 16.0% 6.25 +28.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 52.6% 1.90 -33.5%

Over 3.5 11.4% 30.8% 3.25 -37.8%

BTTS 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.8%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Algeciras1.1

Hercules0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALGECIRAS · PPG 2.00

HERCULES · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=44.0%

Win probability 1X2

Algeciras (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -34.9%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +23.1%

Hercules (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Algeciras face Hercules in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Algeciras a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Hercules 24%, so Algeciras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Algeciras and 0.7 for Hercules (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Algeciras are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.61 for Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Algeciras vs Hercules Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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