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Alcorcon vs Marbella Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 37 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Alcorcon

PPG 1.44 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

Marbella

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-110.0%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.4%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-17.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 69.4% 1.44 -30.2%

Draw 28.2% 26.0% 3.85 +5.1%

Away win 23.3% 14.7% 6.80 +35.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 13.0% 27.8% 3.60 -31.9%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcorcon1.2

Marbella0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCORCON · PPG 1.44

MARBELLA · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=48.5%

Win probability 1X2

Alcorcon (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -30.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +5.1%

Marbella (A) 23.3%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcorcon face Marbella in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcorcon a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Marbella 23%, so Alcorcon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Alcorcon and 0.7 for Marbella (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcorcon are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.56 for Marbella. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 6-2.

Alcorcon vs Marbella Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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