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Cobreloa vs Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Cobreloa

PPG 2.67 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Copiapo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-18.8%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.3%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 55.6% 1.80 -0.8%

Draw 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

Away win 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 54.1% 1.85 +13.6%

Over 3.5 39.8% 32.3% 3.10 +23.4%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa2.2

Copiapo1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.67

COPIAPO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=55.1%

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -0.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.8%

Copiapo (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face Copiapo in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Copiapo 22%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cobreloa and 1.0 for Copiapo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Cobreloa vs Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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