Today / Brazil - Serie B / Sao Bernardo vs America MG

Sao Bernardo vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Sao Bernardo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

America MG

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+25.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-13.0%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.7%1-16.6%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-17.4%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.1%3-15.5%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-15.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 54.3% 1.84 +25.1%

Draw 22.9% 29.9% 3.35 -14.0%

Away win 9.1% 22.7% 4.40 -36.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 44.4% 2.25 +18.4%

Over 3.5 27.6% 23.1% 4.33 +11.7%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.2%

H 68% / xG 2.2-0.4 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 3–0 13.1%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 1–1✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Bernardo2.2

America MG0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 1.50

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

58%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sao Bernardo (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +25.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.0%

America MG (A) 9.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Bernardo face America MG in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Bernardo a 68% chance, the draw 23% and America MG 9%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sao Bernardo and 0.4 for America MG (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Bernardo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for America MG. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Sao Bernardo vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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