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Operario PR vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Operario PR

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

2 – 6

FULL TIME

Nautico

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.7%0-115.5%0-24.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-111.5%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.3%2-14.2%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.8%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 48.1% 2.08 -27.2%

Draw 41.0% 31.3% 3.20 +31.2%

Away win 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 44.4% 2.25 -25.2%

Over 3.5 4.5% 23.8% 4.20 -48.7%

BTTS 41.8% 52.4% 1.91 -20.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.7%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 0–1 15.5%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario PR0.7

Nautico0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO PR · PPG 2.00

NAUTICO · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Operario PR (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -27.2%

Draw 41.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +31.2%

Nautico (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario PR face Nautico in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario PR a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Nautico 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Operario PR and 0.6 for Nautico (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario PR are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Nautico. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +31.2%. This match finished 2-6.

Operario PR vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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