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Ciudad Bolivar vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Acassuso

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.9%0-112.3%0-22.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-023.0%1-110.5%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.8%2-14.5%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.8%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 55.6% 1.80 -26.0%

Draw 38.8% 34.5% 2.90 +12.5%

Away win 20.1% 20.8% 4.80 -2.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Over 3.5 4.4% 15.4% 6.50 -42.8%

BTTS 40.6% 39.2% 2.55 +3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob40.6%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.9%

#2 1–0✓ 23.0%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar0.9

Acassuso0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.20

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -26.0%

Draw 38.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.5%

Acassuso (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 41% chance, the draw 39% and Acassuso 20%, so Ciudad Bolivar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.5 for Acassuso (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.67 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Ciudad Bolivar vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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