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Sligo Rovers vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:45

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Galway Utd

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-113.9%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.7%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.7%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 37.7% 2.65 -8.3%

Draw 32.5% 31.3% 3.20 +4.0%

Away win 32.9% 37.7% 2.65 -12.8%

Over 2.5 35.4% 47.6% 2.10 -25.7%

Over 3.5 13.6% 26.7% 3.75 -29.4%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–0 13.7%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers1.0

Galway Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.38

GALWAY UTD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -8.3%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.0%

Galway Utd (A) 32.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Galway Utd 33%, so Sligo Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sligo Rovers and 1.0 for Galway Utd (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Sligo Rovers vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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