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Longford Town vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

Longford Town

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Cork City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.0%0-119.9%0-29.4%0-33.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-112.2%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.9%2-13.7%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.8%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 19.6% 5.10 +14.7%

Draw 35.2% 27.4% 3.65 +28.5%

Away win 40.4% 59.9% 1.67 -32.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 7.3% 28.2% 3.55 -44.5%

BTTS 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

A 40% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.0%

#2 0–1 19.9%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town0.6

Cork City0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.57

CORK CITY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 24.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +14.7%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +28.5%

Cork City (A) 40.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Cork City in Ireland - First Division on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 24% chance, the draw 35% and Cork City 40%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Longford Town and 0.9 for Cork City (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.50 for Cork City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Longford Town vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions