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CA Estudiantes vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.6%0-119.5%0-27.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-111.7%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.6%2-13.5%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

Draw 39.7% 39.2% 2.55 +1.2%

Away win 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -14.3%

Over 3.5 5.0% 15.4% 6.50 -40.5%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.8%

D 40% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.6%

#2 0–1 19.5%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 1–1✓ 11.7%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes0.6

Colon Santa Fe0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.00

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 26.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 39.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +1.2%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 26% chance, the draw 40% and Colon Santa Fe 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for CA Estudiantes and 0.8 for Colon Santa Fe (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Colon Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-1.

CA Estudiantes vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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