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Argentina - Primera Nacional
Regular Season - 14
Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento· Isidro Casanova
Saturday, May 16, 2026
18:30
Almirante Brown
PPG 1.80
0-0
HIT MostLikelyScore
San Telmo
PPG 0.80
Draw· +8.4%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
35.1%
Odds: 2.10
EV: -26.3%
Draw
40.9%
Odds: 2.65
EV: +8.4%
Away
24.0%
Odds: 4.20
EV: +0.5%
Result: Draw ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
25.8%
Odds: 3.25
-9.7%
Over 3.5
5.0%
Odds: 8.00
-36.0%
BTTS
41.8%
Odds: 2.50
+4.5%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✔
2nd
1-0
✘
3rd
1-1
✘
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Almirante Brown
0.77
San Telmo
0.60
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=35.1%