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Almirante Brown vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

San Telmo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.4%0-115.2%0-24.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.6%1-111.7%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.6%2-14.5%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.9%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 47.6% 2.10 -26.3%

Draw 40.9% 37.7% 2.65 +8.4%

Away win 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.5%

Over 2.5 25.8% 30.8% 3.25 -9.7%

Over 3.5 5.0% 12.5% 8.00 -36.0%

BTTS 41.8% 40.0% 2.50 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 25.4%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–1 15.2%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.8

San Telmo0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.80

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=35.1%

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.3%

Draw 40.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +8.4%

San Telmo (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 35% chance, the draw 41% and San Telmo 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Almirante Brown and 0.6 for San Telmo (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Almirante Brown vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions