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Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Al Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.63 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Kholood

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.9%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-17.3%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.6%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-18.7%4+-23.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Draw 21.6% 18.5% 5.40 +10.0%

Away win 14.5% 9.4% 10.60 +32.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.0% 1.45 -11.0%

Over 3.5 41.5% 47.6% 2.10 -12.8%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 64% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0✓ 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli Jeddah2.5

Al Kholood0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.63

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs P(Home)=63.9%

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli Jeddah (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -20.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.0%

Al Kholood (A) 14.5%

ODDS 10.60 · IMPLIED 9.4% EV +32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli Jeddah face Al Kholood in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli Jeddah a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Al Kholood 14%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.8 for Al Kholood (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Kholood. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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