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Peru - Primera División logo Peru flag Peru - Primera División Apertura - 15 Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi· Arequipa Saturday, May 16, 2026 18:00
FBC Melgar logo FBC Melgar PPG 1.86
4-1 MISS
Sport Huancayo logo Sport Huancayo PPG 0.29
Away· +19.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.2%
Odds: 1.50 EV: -20.2%
Draw 24.7%
Odds: 4.20 EV: +2.2%
Away 22.1%
Odds: 6.00 EV: +19.6%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.67 -1.3%
Over 3.5 32.7% Odds: 2.65 -13.3%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.73 -9.0%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-0
3rd 2-1
4th 1-0
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

FBC Melgar
1.96
Sport Huancayo
0.93

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -1.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -1.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+19.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=53.2%

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