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FBC Melgar vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sport Huancayo

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.2%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-110.1%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.5%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 66.7% 1.50 -20.2%

Draw 24.7% 23.8% 4.20 +2.2%

Away win 22.1% 16.7% 6.00 +19.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 59.9% 1.67 -1.3%

Over 3.5 32.7% 37.7% 2.65 -13.3%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar2.0

Sport Huancayo0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.86

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.2%

Sport Huancayo (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Sport Huancayo in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Sport Huancayo 22%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FBC Melgar and 0.9 for Sport Huancayo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.29 for Sport Huancayo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 4-1.

FBC Melgar vs Sport Huancayo Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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