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Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-112.8%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.7%2-17.1%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Draw 35.0% 26.0% 3.85 +34.8%

Away win 27.1% 27.4% 3.65 -0.7%

Over 2.5 35.9% 64.5% 1.55 -44.4%

Over 3.5 13.7% 42.6% 2.35 -40.7%

BTTS 48.6% 67.6% 1.48 -28.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga1.0

Sarpsborg 080.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.00

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 37.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -29.9%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +34.8%

Sarpsborg 08 (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Sarpsborg 08 in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Sarpsborg 08 27%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Valerenga and 0.9 for Sarpsborg 08 (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Sarpsborg 08. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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