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Magallanes vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:30

Magallanes

PPG 0.80 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Recoleta

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+24.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.4%0-25.1%0-33.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-04.7%1-19.0%1-28.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.2%3-14.1%3-23.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.5%4+-22.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 52.4% 1.91 -33.0%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -13.1%

Away win 41.2% 28.2% 3.55 +46.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 51.3% 1.95 +24.6%

Over 3.5 47.5% 29.0% 3.45 +63.9%

BTTS 62.5% 56.5% 1.77 +10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.5%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes1.7

Recoleta1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 0.80

RECOLETA · PPG 1.80

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 35.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.1%

Recoleta (A) 41.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +46.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face Recoleta in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Recoleta 41%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Magallanes and 1.9 for Recoleta (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.80 for Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +63.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Magallanes vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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