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Granada vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 40 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:30

Granada

PPG 1.37 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Burgos

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-113.7%0-26.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.6%2-16.7%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 32.8% 3.05 +5.5%

Draw 32.3% 32.8% 3.05 -1.5%

Away win 33.1% 41.0% 2.44 -19.2%

Over 2.5 38.4% 39.2% 2.55 -2.1%

Over 3.5 14.2% 19.0% 5.25 -15.3%

BTTS 48.6% 48.8% 2.05 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1✓ 13.7%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Granada1.0

Burgos1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GRANADA · PPG 1.37

BURGOS · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.37), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Granada (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +5.5%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -1.5%

Burgos (A) 33.1%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Granada face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Granada a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Burgos 33%, so Granada are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Granada and 1.0 for Burgos (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Granada are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.47 for Burgos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Granada vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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