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Almeria vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 40 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:30

Almeria

PPG 2.32 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Las Palmas

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.9%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.2%1-111.4%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 52.6% 1.90 -7.7%

Draw 25.8% 29.0% 3.45 -6.6%

Away win 25.6% 25.6% 3.90 -0.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 58.8% 1.70 +0.5%

Over 3.5 32.8% 37.0% 2.70 -11.4%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almeria1.7

Las Palmas1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERIA · PPG 2.32

LAS PALMAS · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.32) vs P(Home)=48.6%

Win probability 1X2

Almeria (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -7.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.6%

Las Palmas (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria face Las Palmas in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Las Palmas 26%, so Almeria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Almeria and 1.2 for Las Palmas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 1.32 for Las Palmas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Almeria vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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