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Al Hilal vs Neom SC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:05

Al Hilal

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Neom SC

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.4%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-18.1%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-17.7%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.5% 83.3% 1.20 -27.4%

Draw 21.6% 16.1% 6.20 +20.3%

Away win 17.8% 7.7% 13.00 +78.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 39.6% 51.8% 1.93 -23.6%

BTTS 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 60% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Hilal2.4

Neom SC0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL HILAL · PPG 2.50

NEOM SC · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=60.5%

Win probability 1X2

Al Hilal (H) 60.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -27.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +20.3%

Neom SC (A) 17.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +78.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Hilal face Neom SC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Hilal a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Neom SC 18%, so Al Hilal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Al Hilal and 0.8 for Neom SC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Hilal are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.44 for Neom SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +78.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Hilal vs Neom SC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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