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Saudi-Arabia - Pro League logo Saudi-Arabia flag Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 33 Kingdom Arena· Riyadh Saturday, May 16, 2026 16:05
Al Hilal logo Al Hilal PPG 2.50
2-0 HIT MostLikelyScore
Neom SC logo Neom SC PPG 1.44
Away· +78.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 60.5%
Odds: 1.20 EV: -27.4%
Draw 21.6%
Odds: 6.20 EV: +20.3%
Away 17.8%
Odds: 13.00 EV: +78.8%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.38 -15.3%
Over 3.5 39.6% Odds: 1.93 -23.6%
BTTS 52.1% Odds: 1.75 -8.8%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-1
4th 3-0
5th 1-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Hilal
2.36
Neom SC
0.83

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -15.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -15.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+78.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=60.5%

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