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Al Akhdoud vs Al Khaleej Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:05

Al Akhdoud

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Khaleej

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.3%0-28.6%0-35.9%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.6%1-19.5%1-29.8%1-36.8%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.6%2-15.4%2-25.7%2-33.9%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.2%3-31.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 22.7% 4.40 -0.1%

Draw 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

Away win 53.7% 59.5% 1.68 -9.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 61.7% 1.62 -0.5%

Over 3.5 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 54% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 1–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Akhdoud1.1

Al Khaleej2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AKHDOUD · PPG 0.75

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Al Akhdoud (H) 22.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.4%

Al Khaleej (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Akhdoud face Al Khaleej in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Akhdoud a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Al Khaleej 54%, so Al Khaleej are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Al Akhdoud and 2.1 for Al Khaleej (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Akhdoud are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.06 for Al Khaleej. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Akhdoud vs Al Khaleej Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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