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Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tromso

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.7%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.0%1-112.9%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.6%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 69.4% 1.44 -34.1%

Draw 28.1% 22.2% 4.50 +15.9%

Away win 26.1% 14.7% 6.80 +46.5%

Over 2.5 46.9% 64.5% 1.55 -27.3%

Over 3.5 20.6% 42.6% 2.35 -30.9%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodo/Glimt1.3

Tromso1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.00

TROMSO · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Bodo/Glimt (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -34.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +15.9%

Tromso (A) 26.1%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +46.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodo/Glimt face Tromso in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodo/Glimt a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Tromso 26%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bodo/Glimt and 1.0 for Tromso (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Tromso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +46.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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