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A. Atlanta vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

A. Atlanta

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

A. Rafaela

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-114.3%0-24.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.6%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.3%2-15.1%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 56.5% 1.77 -37.3%

Draw 40.7% 35.1% 2.85 +16.0%

Away win 23.9% 18.2% 5.50 +18.9%

Over 2.5 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Over 3.5 6.1% 14.3% 7.00 -34.4%

BTTS 46.2% 37.7% 2.65 +22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–0✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Atlanta0.8

A. Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ATLANTA · PPG 1.86

A. RAFAELA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=35.4%

Win probability 1X2

A. Atlanta (H) 35.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -37.3%

Draw 40.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +16.0%

A. Rafaela (A) 23.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Atlanta face A. Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Atlanta a 35% chance, the draw 41% and A. Rafaela 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for A. Atlanta and 0.6 for A. Rafaela (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Atlanta are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for A. Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 2-0.

A. Atlanta vs A. Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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