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Kriens vs Paradiso Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:30

Kriens

PPG 2.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paradiso

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a clear edge.

+12.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.7%1-13.1%1-21.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.2%2-15.9%2-23.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-17.5%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-119.2%4+-210.9%4+-34.1%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 67.6% 1.48 +5.1%

Draw 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -8.6%

Away win 8.6% 18.5% 5.40 -32.1%

Over 2.5 78.9% 70.4% 1.42 +12.0%

Over 3.5 72.6% 48.8% 2.05 +48.8%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 71% / xG 3.8-1.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.6%

#4 4–0✓ 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kriens3.8

Paradiso1.1

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 72.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KRIENS · PPG 2.67

PARADISO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kriens (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +5.1%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.6%

Paradiso (A) 8.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kriens face Paradiso in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kriens a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Paradiso 9%, so Kriens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Kriens and 1.1 for Paradiso (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kriens are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.80 for Paradiso. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Kriens vs Paradiso Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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