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Orijent vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:30

Orijent

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Karlovac

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.2%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.4%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 66.7% 1.50 -31.9%

Draw 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

Away win 26.5% 16.7% 6.00 +35.4%

Over 2.5 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

Over 3.5 20.3% 26.7% 3.75 -14.3%

BTTS 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0✓ 12.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orijent1.3

Karlovac1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIJENT · PPG 1.14

KARLOVAC · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Orijent (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -31.9%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

Karlovac (A) 26.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orijent face Karlovac in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orijent a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Karlovac 27%, so Orijent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Orijent and 1.0 for Karlovac (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orijent are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.79 for Karlovac. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Orijent vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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