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Bijelo Brdo vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:30

Bijelo Brdo

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Hrvace

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-110.6%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.5%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 40.8% 2.45 +14.2%

Draw 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Away win 23.6% 38.2% 2.62 -22.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Over 3.5 12.1% 25.0% 4.00 -31.0%

BTTS 47.3% 52.4% 1.91 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.3%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–0✓ 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bijelo Brdo1.2

Hrvace0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BIJELO BRDO · PPG 1.86

HRVACE · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=46.6%

Win probability 1X2

Bijelo Brdo (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +14.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Hrvace (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bijelo Brdo face Hrvace in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bijelo Brdo a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Hrvace 24%, so Bijelo Brdo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bijelo Brdo and 0.7 for Hrvace (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bijelo Brdo are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.80 for Hrvace. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Bijelo Brdo vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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