Today / Tristan Suarez vs A. Rafaela

Tristan Suarez vs A. Rafaela Prediction

Monday, April 13, 2026

Tristan Suarez

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Rafaela

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-13.6%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-17.8%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-16.1%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-15.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.3% — — —

Draw 17.0% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 36.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.8%

H 75% / xG 2.2-0.5 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez2.2

A. Rafaela0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 2.00

A. RAFAELA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 75.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Rafaela (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face A. Rafaela on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 75% chance, the draw 17% and A. Rafaela 8%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tristan Suarez and 0.5 for A. Rafaela (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for A. Rafaela.

Tristan Suarez vs A. Rafaela Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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