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Grand-Saconnex vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Grand-Saconnex

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Luzern B

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+31.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.7%0-20.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-00.9%1-12.3%1-22.9%1-32.4%1-4+2.8%2 2-01.6%2-14.0%2-25.0%2-34.1%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.8%3-14.5%3-25.6%3-34.7%3-4+5.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-19.0%4+-211.3%4+-39.4%4+-4+10.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 58.8% 1.70 -10.8%

Draw 21.7% 23.1% 4.33 -3.6%

Away win 25.9% 27.8% 3.60 -4.1%

Over 2.5 79.0% 84.7% 1.18 -6.8%

Over 3.5 83.9% 63.7% 1.57 +31.7%

BTTS 66.7% 82.0% 1.22 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 3.4-2.5 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2✓ 5.6%

#2 2–2 5.0%

#3 4–2 4.8%

#4 3–3 4.7%

#5 3–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grand-Saconnex3.4

Luzern B2.5

COMBINED 5.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 83.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAND-SACONNEX · PPG 1.40

LUZERN B · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Grand-Saconnex (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.6%

Luzern B (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grand-Saconnex face Luzern B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grand-Saconnex a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Luzern B 26%, so Grand-Saconnex are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Grand-Saconnex and 2.5 for Luzern B (5.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grand-Saconnex are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Luzern B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Grand-Saconnex vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion Predictions