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Brage vs Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Brage

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Norrkoping

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.0%0-25.6%0-34.2%0-4+4.1%1 1-03.4%1-17.8%1-28.8%1-36.6%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.7%2-16.0%2-26.8%2-35.1%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.4%3-13.1%3-23.5%3-32.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 34.5% 2.90 -9.9%

Draw 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -6.3%

Away win 46.7% 45.5% 2.20 +2.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 38.5% 2.60 +37.5%

BTTS 62.9% 66.7% 1.50 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob62.9%

A 47% / xG 1.6-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brage1.6

Norrkoping2.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGE · PPG 0.33

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Brage (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.3%

Norrkoping (A) 46.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brage face Norrkoping in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brage a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Norrkoping 47%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Brage and 2.3 for Norrkoping (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brage are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Norrkoping. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Brage vs Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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