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Leonesa vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 40 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:15

Leonesa

PPG 0.74 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Eibar

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-117.0%0-210.3%0-34.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.8%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.0%2-14.8%2-22.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 33.8% 2.96 -15.2%

Draw 30.5% 29.9% 3.35 +2.2%

Away win 44.2% 43.1% 2.32 +2.5%

Over 2.5 35.5% 47.6% 2.10 -25.4%

Over 3.5 13.6% 26.3% 3.80 -29.0%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–2 10.3%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leonesa0.8

Eibar1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONESA · PPG 0.74

EIBAR · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.74) vs Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Leonesa (H) 25.2%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -15.2%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +2.2%

Eibar (A) 44.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leonesa face Eibar in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leonesa a 25% chance, the draw 31% and Eibar 44%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Leonesa and 1.2 for Eibar (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leonesa are averaging 0.74 points per game versus 1.11 for Eibar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Leonesa vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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